Do You Think the Housing Market’s About To Crash? Read This First

by | Apr 16, 2025 | Buyers, Home Prices, Inventory, Sellers

Lately, it feels like a lot of people have been asking the same question: “Is the housing market about to crash?”

If you’ve been scrolling through social media or watching the news, you might have seen some pretty scary headlines yourself. That’s why it’s no surprise that, according to data from Clever Real Estate, 70% of Americans are worried about a housing crash in 2025.

But before you hit pause on your plans to buy or sell a home, take a deep breath. The truth is: the housing market isn’t about to crash – it’s just shifting. And that shift actually works in your favor.

Today’s Inventory Keeps the Housing Market from Crashing

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

Think about it. If there’s a shortage of something – like tickets to a popular concert – prices go up. That’s what’s been happening with homes. We still have a shortage of supply. Too many buyers and not enough homes push prices higher.

Check out the white line for 2025 in the graph below. Even though the number of homes for sale is climbing, data from Realtor.com shows we’re still well below normal levels (shown in gray):

a graph of sales and pricesThat ongoing low supply is what’s stopping home prices from dropping at the national level. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“… if there’s a shortage, prices simply cannot crash.”

More Homes for Sale Means Price Growth Is Easing

And, as more homes become available, that takes some of the intense upward pressure off home price growth – leading to healthier price appreciation.

So, while prices aren’t falling nationally, growing inventory means they also aren’t rising as fast as they were. What we’re seeing is price moderation (see graph below):

a graph of green barsAnd according to Freddie Mac, that moderation should continue through the rest of this year:

“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”

Put simply, that means prices will continue going up in most areas, just not as quickly. That’s good news for anyone who’s been having trouble finding a home and feeling sticker shock from the rapid price appreciation of the past few years.

But of course, what’s happening with prices and inventory is going to vary by local market. So, talk to your agent to find out what’s happening where you live.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the talk scare you. Experts agree that a housing market crash is unlikely in 2025. As Business Insider reports:

“. . . economists who study housing market conditions generally do not expect a crash in 2025 or beyond unless the economic outlook changes.”

Instead, we’re heading into a housing market that’s healthier and more balanced, with slower price growth and more opportunity.

The Truth About Newly Built Homes and Today’s Market

by | Apr 8, 2025 | Buyers, Inventory

The Truth About Newly Built Homes and Today’s MarketHeadlines are talking about the inventory of new homes and how we’re back at the levels not seen since 2009. And maybe you’re reading that and thinking: oh no, here we go again. That’s because you remember the housing crash of the late 2000s and you’re worried we’re repeating the same mistakes.

But before you let fear take hold, remember: headlines are designed to be clickbait. And a lot of the time, they do more to terrify than clarify. That’s because they don’t always give you all the context you need. So, let’s take a step back and look at what the data really says.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true the number of new homes on the market has reached its highest level since 2009, that’s not a cause for alarm.

Here’s the context that matters most. When the data is turned into a graph, it’s clear the amount seen in 2009 wasn’t the peak of oversupply – not even close. That high point came earlier in 2007-2008. If anything, 2009 was when the number of new homes being built was really starting to slide back down (see graph below):

a graph of a market growthThe overbuilding that contributed to the housing crash happened in the years leading up to 2008. Not in 2009. At that point, construction was already slowing down. So, saying we’ve hit 2009 levels isn’t the same thing as saying we’re overbuilding like we did the last time.

Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade

Here’s some more data to prove it to you. After the crash, builders pulled production way back. As a result, they built far fewer homes than the market needed. And that was a consistent problem that lasted for over a decade. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which is still a challenge today.

The graph below uses Census data to show the number of new homes built each year over the past 52 years. You can clearly see the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange), and how we’re only now getting back to a more normal level of construction:

a graph of a number of units

Today’s situation is different. Builders aren’t overbuilding – they’re catching up.

In a recent article, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, highlights this deficit and speaks to why the recent ramp-up in construction is actually good for today’s market, especially buyers:

“This means more homes on the market and more options for home buyers, which is good news for a housing market that has been underbuilt for over a decade.”

Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand will vary by market. Some markets may have more newly built homes, some less. But, nationally, there’s nothing to worry about. This isn’t like the last time.

Bottom Line

No matter what you’re reading or seeing, the growing number of newly built homes on the market isn’t a red flag nationally – it’s a sign builders are starting to make up for years of underbuilding. If you want to talk about what’s happening in your market, connect with me!

 

Paused Your Moving Plans? Here’s Why It Might Be Time To Hit Play Again

by | Apr 6, 2025 | Buyers, First Time Home Buyers, Home Search, Inventory, Popular Articles

Paused your moving plans? Hit play again.Last year, 70% of buyers abandoned their home search – and maybe you were one of them. It makes sense. Inventory was low, prices were high, and mortgage rates were up and down like a rollercoaster. All of that made it really hard to find a home you loved – and could afford.

But guess what? The market is shifting.

So, if you paused your moving plans in 2024, it might be time to hit play again. Here’s why.

More Inventory Opens Up More Options

Even if you could make the numbers work, the lack of available homes in recent years probably made it hard to come by something that fit your needs. But inventory is rising, which means you have more options now.

According to Realtor.com, inventory has jumped 27.5% since this time last year (see graph below):

a graph showing the average of a home saleSo, if you were reluctant to list your house because you weren’t sure where you’d go if it sold, you have more choices than you did a year ago. That’s a big win.

Homes Are Staying on the Market Longer, Too

When the supply of homes for sale is low, they’re snatched up quickly because there just aren’t enough of them to go around. And a few years ago, that meant your house could sell overnight. While that’s not always a bad thing, if you’re planning a move and also need to find your next home, a slower pace isn’t the end of the world. In fact, it’s welcome relief.

Now that inventory has grown, homes are staying on the market longer, meaning you don’t have to feel as rushed in the process (see graph below):

a graph of blue barsThe latest data shows the typical time homes spent on the market went up by about 8% this year – that’s higher than we’ve seen since 2020, but still a faster pace than before the market ramped up. And it’s about a week longer than last year. Talk about a sweet spot for movers. It may seem like just a few days, but it gives you more flexibility and time to be thoughtful about your decisions. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, notes:

“There are more homes for sale than in the last few years, which means the market pace is a bit more manageable–with longer days on market–and many sellers are more flexible . . . Though buyers face still-high housing costs, they may find a bit more give in the market, which could give them more time to make a decision, even in the busy spring and summer months.”

And if you’re thinking – but wait – doesn’t that mean it will be harder to sell my house? Don’t worry. With inventory still almost 23% below the pre-pandemic norm, well-priced homes are selling, especially as more buyers step back into the game this season.

Bottom Line

With growing inventory, sellers who want to upgrade, downsize, or relocate have more choices. Plus, with less pressure to rush into an offer, it could be a great time to revisit your home search if you put it on hold.

With more homes on the market and more time to make decisions, what else do you need to see in order to kickstart your home search again? Contact me Today!