Are you looking for better home prices, or even a lower mortgage rate? You might find both in one place: a newly built home. While many buyers are overlooking new construction, it could be your best opportunity in today’s market. Here’s why.
There are more brand-new homes available right now than there were even just a few months ago. According to the most recent data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), roughly 1 in 5 homes for sale right now is new construction. So, if you’re not looking at newly built homes, you’re missing out on a big portion of what’s available.
And with more new homes on the market, builders are motivated to sell their current inventory. As a result, many are taking steps to draw in buyers.
According to Buddy Hughes, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):
“Almost 40% of home builders reduced sales prices in the last month . . .”
That means builders are being realistic about today’s market and adjusting to what buyers can afford. It’s their way to keep their inventory moving.
So, builders may be more willing to negotiate price than you’d expect – and that means your dollar may go further if you buy a newly built home. Lean on your agent to see what’s available and what incentives builders are offering in and around your area.
Here’s something most people don’t know. Right now, buyers of brand-new homes often get better mortgage rates than buyers of existing homes.
That’s because many builders are also offering rate buydowns to make their homes more attractive and keep sales moving. Basically, they’re willing to chip in to lower your rate, so you’re more likely to buy one of their homes.
Data from Realtor.com shows, in 2023 and 2024, buyers of newly built homes got a mortgage rate around half a percent lower compared to those who bought existing homes (see graph below):
That kind of savings adds up and makes a big difference when you’re figuring out your monthly budget.
So, if you haven’t found something you love yet, it’s time to add newly built homes to your search. You may find that what you’ve been looking for is already out there, it’s just in a new home community.
More choices, the potential to negotiate on the price, and maybe even better mortgage rates make these options a bright spot in today’s housing market.
If you haven’t considered a newly built home yet, what’s holding you back?
Talk to a local real estate agent about what’s available and if a newly built home makes sense for you.
There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.
Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.
Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):
And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.
Here’s what the breakdown shows:
Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.
That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.
And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.
If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.
Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you.
Here’s something you need to know. The housing market is getting back to a healthier, more normal place. And even though it may not sound like it, this shift is actually a good thing.
It’s what you should expect. It’s just that our expectations have been skewed by the intense seller’s market over the past few years.
But what you need to remember is: there’s still plenty of opportunity to be had if you’re thinking about selling – whether that’s next month or next year. You just need to stay up to date on what’s happening in the market, and have a strategy that matches the moment. Here’s your update.
According to the latest data, the number of homes for sale is rising back toward more normal levels (see graph below):
But inventory growth is going to vary a lot based on where you live.
If you’re in a market where the number of homes for sale is back to normal, buyers may have more sway than you’d expect. That doesn’t mean buyers have all the power – it just means they have more choices, so your home has to stand out.
But if you live where inventory is still pretty limited, you may see more buyers competing for your house.
No matter where you are, the key is to work with a pro who can help you adjust your game plan for your local market.
With more homes to choose from, today’s buyers are quick to skip over homes that feel overpriced. That’s why pricing your house right is the secret to selling quickly and for top dollar. That’s a point Realtor.com really drives home:
“ . . . a seller listing a well-priced, move-in ready home should have little problem finding a buyer.”
Miss the mark, though, and you may have to backtrack. Today, about 1 in 5 sellers (19.1%) are reducing their asking price to attract buyers (see map below):
Here’s how to avoid being one of those sellers who has to reduce their asking price. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:
“The rising share of price reductions suggests that a lot of sellers are anchored to prices that aren’t realistic in today’s housing market. Today’s sellers would be wise to listen to feedback they are getting from the market.”
The best way to get that information? Lean on your local agent. They have the expertise to set a price that sells in any market. Because if your price isn’t compelling, it’s not selling.
Gone are the days of buyers waiving inspections and appraisals just to get a deal done. Now, because they have more homes to choose from, buyers are able to ask for things like repairs, credits, and help with closing costs. And data from Redfin shows nearly 44.4% of sellers are willing to negotiate (see graph below):
The takeaway? This isn’t a bad market. It’s just a different one. And it’s in line with more normal years in the housing market, like back in 2019. The savviest sellers are the ones taking advantage of every opportunity to work with buyers and make their house shine.
And it’ll help if you think of concessions as tools, not losses. Use them to bridge gaps, sweeten deals, and get across the finish line. And don’t stress. Since prices went up roughly 55% over the past five years, you’ve got plenty of room to make a concession or two and still come out ahead.
Just be sure to work with your agent to understand which concessions could be the key to sealing the deal.
Sellers who are going to succeed in the weeks and months ahead are the ones who understand this market shift and lean into it with the right expectations and the right strategy.
Connect with a local agent and talk about what’s working in your area right now – and how to make those wins work for you, too – whenever you’re ready to make a move.
Lately, it feels like a lot of people have been asking the same question: “Is the housing market about to crash?”
If you’ve been scrolling through social media or watching the news, you might have seen some pretty scary headlines yourself. That’s why it’s no surprise that, according to data from Clever Real Estate, 70% of Americans are worried about a housing crash in 2025.
But before you hit pause on your plans to buy or sell a home, take a deep breath. The truth is: the housing market isn’t about to crash – it’s just shifting. And that shift actually works in your favor.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”
Think about it. If there’s a shortage of something – like tickets to a popular concert – prices go up. That’s what’s been happening with homes. We still have a shortage of supply. Too many buyers and not enough homes push prices higher.
Check out the white line for 2025 in the graph below. Even though the number of homes for sale is climbing, data from Realtor.com shows we’re still well below normal levels (shown in gray):
That ongoing low supply is what’s stopping home prices from dropping at the national level. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“… if there’s a shortage, prices simply cannot crash.”
And, as more homes become available, that takes some of the intense upward pressure off home price growth – leading to healthier price appreciation.
So, while prices aren’t falling nationally, growing inventory means they also aren’t rising as fast as they were. What we’re seeing is price moderation (see graph below):
And according to Freddie Mac, that moderation should continue through the rest of this year:
“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”
Put simply, that means prices will continue going up in most areas, just not as quickly. That’s good news for anyone who’s been having trouble finding a home and feeling sticker shock from the rapid price appreciation of the past few years.
But of course, what’s happening with prices and inventory is going to vary by local market. So, talk to your agent to find out what’s happening where you live.
Don’t let the talk scare you. Experts agree that a housing market crash is unlikely in 2025. As Business Insider reports:
“. . . economists who study housing market conditions generally do not expect a crash in 2025 or beyond unless the economic outlook changes.”
Instead, we’re heading into a housing market that’s healthier and more balanced, with slower price growth and more opportunity.
At one point or another, you’ve probably heard someone say, “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”
That’s because nationally, home values continue to rise. And with mortgage rates still stubbornly high and home prices going up, you may be holding out for prices to fall or trying to time the market for that perfect rate. But here’s the truth: waiting for the right moment could cost you in the long run.
The idea that prices will drop dramatically is wishful thinking in most markets. According to the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, industry analysts are saying prices are projected to keep rising through at least 2029.
While we’re no longer seeing the steep spikes of previous years, experts project a steady and sustainable increase of around 3-4% per year, nationally. And the good news is, this is a much more normal pace – a welcome sign for hopeful buyers (see graph below):
What This Means for YouWhile it’s tempting to wait it out for prices or mortgage rates to decline before you buy, here’s what you’ll need to consider if you do.
Let’s put real numbers into this equation. If you purchase a $400,000 home today, based on these price forecasts, it’s expected to go up in value by more than $83,000 over the next five years. That’s some serious money back in your pocket instead of being left on the sidelines (see graph below):
Why Aren’t Prices Dropping? It’s All About Supply and DemandEven though there are more homes for sale right now than there were at this time last year, or even last month, there still aren’t enough of them on the market for all the buyers who want to purchase them. And that puts continued upward pressure on prices. As Redfin puts it:
“Prices will rise at a pace similar to that of the second half of 2024 because we don’t expect there to be enough new inventory to meet demand.”
While every market is different, most areas will continue to see moderate price growth. Some may level off a bit, but a major national drop? Not likely.
Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market
If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember this: real estate rewards those who get in the market, not those who try to time it perfectly.
Yes, today’s housing market has its challenges, but there are ways to make it work —exploring different neighborhoods, considering smaller condos or townhomes, asking your lender about alternative financing, or tapping into down payment assistance programs. The key is making a move when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for a perfect scenario that may never arrive.
Want to take a look at what’s happening with prices in your local market? Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, reach out to a local agent so you have a plan in place that’ll set you up for success.